The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year; Elon attacks Trump

June 5, 2025 – Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has warned that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will trigger a recession in the United States during the second half of 2025. In a post on X, Musk stated, “The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year,” reigniting debate over the administration’s trade strategy.

The warning comes as the U.S. economy shows signs of strain, with Q1 2025 GDP contracting by 0.2%, according to recent economic data. A recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, could be exacerbated by Trump’s tariffs, which include a 50% levy on imported steel and aluminum. These measures aim to protect domestic industries and reduce the trade deficit but have drawn criticism for potentially increasing inflation and disrupting supply chains.

Musk’s comments follow his resignation from his role as a special government employee leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on May 30, 2025, citing disagreements with Trump’s policies, including the tariffs and a controversial tax bill. Despite the rift, Trump has suggested Musk will remain an informal adviser, highlighting their complex relationship.

Posts on X reflect polarized views, with some users agreeing with Musk that tariffs could “cripple” the economy, while others defend them as vital for American industries. The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump’s tariffs could raise inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, impacting consumers and businesses.

A federal court recently ruled against some of Trump’s tariffs, though an appeals court temporarily reinstated them, adding uncertainty. As economic indicators waver, Musk’s recession warning underscores the high stakes of Trump’s trade policies, with the coming months critical to determining their impact.